Adriana Crespo-Tenorio, Nathan M. Jensen, and Guillermo Rosas. 2014. "Political Liabiities: Surviving Banking Crises. Forthcoming. Comparative Political Studies.
Nathan M. Jensen, Edmund Malesky, Mariana Medina, and Ugur Ozdemir. 2014. "Pass the Bucks: Investment Incentives as Political Credit-Claiming Devices. Forthcoming. International Studies Quarterly.
Norman Schofield (with S. Galiani and G. Torrens). "Factor Endowments, Democracy, and Trade Policy Divergence." Journal of Public Economic Theory (2013). In press for 2014. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1938400
Brian Crisp (with Santiago Olivella, Michael Malecki, and Mindy Sher). Forthcoming. "Vote-Earning Strategies in Flexible List Systems: Seats at the Price of Unity." Electoral Studies (available March 2013 online).
Brian Crisp (with Santiago Olivella and Joshua Potter). 2013. "Party-System Nationalization and the Scope of Public Policy: The Importance of Cross-District Constituencies." Comparative Political Studies 46(4): 431-456
Barry Cynamon, Daniel Guenther, Keith Schnakenberg, Itai Sened, and Ron Watson. "What is the Middle Class and Who is In It?" Paper presented at the MPSA meeting, April 2013 in Chicago.
Axel Dreher and Nathan M. Jensen. 2013. "Country or Leader? Political Change and UN General Assembly Voting." Forthcoming. European Journal of Political Economy, 29: 183-196.
Sebastian Galiani 2013. "The Political Coase Theorem in the Lab." Social Science Research Network. Working papers series.
Nathan M. Jensen "Domestic Institutions and the Taxing of Multinational Corporations." 2013. International Studies Quarterly.
Nathan M. Jensen, Edmund Malesky, and Stephen Weymouth. 2013. "Binding the Grabbing Hand? Legislatures and Expropriation Risk in Authoritarian Regimes. British Journal of Political Science.
Gyanesh Lama and Itai Sened, under review. "The Middle Class in the U.S. - A New Conceptual and Measurement Framework."
Jacob Montgomery (with Joshua Cutler). "Computerized Adaptive Testing for Pubilc Opinion Surveys." Forthcoming. Political Analysis.
Itai Sened, Marshall Thompson, and Robert Walker, under review. "The State, Property Rights, and the Middle Class: A Fresh Start."
Norman Schofield. 2013. "The Probability of Fit Choice." The Review of Economic Design. 17: 1-21.
Norman Schofield. Advances in Political Economy: Institutions, Modelling and Empirical Analysis (co-edited with Gonzalo Caballero and Dan Kselman). Hardback. Springer, Berlin. March 2013. ISBN 978-3-642-35236-6.
Santiago Olivella and Margit Tavits. 2013. "Legislative Effects of Electoral Mandates." British Journal of Political Science. forhcoming.
Steve Smith, "Americans' Attitudes about the Senate Filibuster," American Politics Research (first published online March 10, 2013 as doi 10.1177/1532673X13475472) with H.M. Park.
Steve Smith, "Majority Party Power and Procedural Motions in the U.S. Senate," Legislative Studies Quarterly 38:2 (May 2013): 205-236
Steve Smith, "Congress, the Troubled Institution," in S. Kernell and S. Smith, eds., Principles and Practice of American Politics: Classic and Contemporary Readings (CQ Press, 2013): 204-219.
Margit Tavits. 2013. Post-Communist Democracies and Party Organization, Cambridge University Press.
Murray Weidenbaum. Winter 2013. "U.S. Business Adrift in a Global Marketplace." Harvard International Review. Vol. 34 (3).
Brian Crisp (with Amanda Driscoll.) 2012. "The Strategic Use of Legislative Voting Procedures." Legislative Studies Quarterly 37(1): 67-97.
Brian Crisp (with Santiago Olivella and Joshua Potter). 2012. "Electoral Contexts that Impede Voter Coordination."Electoral Studies 31 (1); 143-158.
Brian Crisp (with Joshua Potter and John J.W. Lee). 2012. "Entry and Coordination in Mixed-Member Systems: A Controlled Comparison Testing the Contamination Hypothesis." The Journal of Poltiics 74(2): 571-583.
Brian Crisp, John Patty, and Elizabeth Penn. National Science Foundation Grant, "Institutional Interactions: The Impacts of Bicameralism and Presidential Powers on Legislative Structure."
Steve Fazzari (with Pierro Ferri, Edward Greenberg, and Anna Maria Variato), "Aggregate Demand, Instability, and Growth," Review of Keynesian Economics, forthcoming, 2012.
Steve Fazzari, Barry Cynamon and Mark Setterfield. 2012. After the Great Recession: The Struggle for Economic Recovery and Growth, November 2012, Cambridge University Press.
Matt Gabel (with Clifford Carruba and Charles Hankla). 2012. "Understanding the Role of the European Court of Justice in European Inegration." American Political Science Review. Volume 106. Issue 1.
James Gibson (with Gregory Caldeira). "Campaign Support, Conflicts of Interest, and Judicial impartiality: Can the Legitimacy of Courts be Rescued by Recusals?" The Journal of Politics 74 (#1, January): 18-34, 2012.
Nate Jensen (with Glen Biglaiser, Quah Li, Edumund Malesky, Pablo M. Pinto, Santiago M. Pinto, and Joseph L. Staats). 2012. Politics and Foreign Direct Investment, University of Michigan Press.
Sukkoo Kim (with Marc Law), "History, Institutions and Cities: A View from the Americas," Journal of Regional Science, 2012. 52(2): 10-39.
Mona Krook (with Susan Franceschet and Jennifer M. Piscopo). The Impact of Gender Quotas. 2012. Oxford University Press.
Andrew Martin (with Clifford Carubba, Barry Freidman, and Georg Vanberg). "Who Controls the Content of Supreme Court Opinions?" American Journal of Political Science. 56: 400-412, 2012.
Jacob Montgomery (with Florian Hollenbach and Michael Ward). 2012. "Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging." Political Analysis. 20(3); 271-291.
James Morley (with Jeremy Piger), "The Asymmetric Business Cycle." The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2012, 94(1): 208-221.
Norman Schofield (with Guido Cataife). "Electoral
Itai Sened, Property Rights and the Middle Class: How Individual Prosperity Brings Social Prosperity and Economic Growth. Charles F. Koch Charitable Foundation Grant. $19,000. Runs 9/1/12 - 8/30/13.
Steve Smith, The American Congress Reader (Cambridge University Press, 2009, 2012).
Andrew Sobel, International Political Economy in Context: Individual Choices, Global Effects, 2012, Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
Andrew Sobel, Birth of Hegemony: Crisis, Financial Revolution and Emerging Global Networks, 2012, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Melanie Springer, "State Electoral Institutions and Voter Turnot in Presidential Elections, 1920-2000." State Politics and Policy Quarterly, Vol. 12 (3), 252-283, 2012.
Margit Tavits, "Organizing for Success: Party Organizational Strength and Electoral Performance in Postcommunist Europe" The Journal of Politics 74(#1, January): 83-97, 2012.
Margit Tavits. "Party Organizational Strength and Party Unity in Parliament in Post-Communist Europe." European Political Science Review, 4(3): 409-431.
Melinda Warren (with Susan Dudley), Fiscal Stalemate Reflected in Regulators' Budget: An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2012 and 2013. June 2012.
Brian Crisp and Matt Gabel. National Science Foundation Grant, "Collaborative: Using Roll Call Votes to Understand Legislative Behavior." (in collaboration with J. Carrubba at Emory University).
Steve Fazzari (with Robert Chirinko and Andrew Meyer), "That Elusive Elasticity: A Long-Panel Approach to Estimating the Price Sensitivity of Business Capital," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Volume 29, 587-94, 2011.
James Gibson, “Judging the Politics of Judging: Are Politicians in Robes Invevitably Illegitimate?” 2011. In What’s Law Got to Do with It? What Judges Do, Why They Do It, and What’s at Stake. Edited by Charles Gardner Geyh. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, pp. 281-305.
James Gibson, “The Effects of Judicial Campaign Activity on the Legitimacy of Courts: A Survey-based Experiment.”Political Research Quarterly 64: (#3, September): 545-558, 2011 (with Jeffrey Gottfried, Michael Delli Carpini, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson).
Gyung-Ho Jeong, Gary Miller, Camilla Schofield, and Itai Sened. 2011. "Cracks in the Opposition: Partisan Realignment in the U.S. Senate Negotiations over Immigration Policy." American Journal of Political Science. 55(3): 511-525.
Sukkoo Kim, with Sebastian Galiani, “Political Centralization and Urban Primacy: Evidence from National and Provincial Capitals in the Americas,” in Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth: Geography, Institutions and the Knowledge Economy, edited by D. Costa and N. Lamoreaux, NBER and the University of Chicago Press, 2011.
Sukkoo Kim, with Marc Law, “The Rise of the American Regulatory State: A View from the Progressive Era,” in Handbook of the Politics of Regulation, edited by D. Levi-Faur, Edward Elgar, 2011.
Guillermo Rosas and Joy Langston, "Gubernatorial Effects on the Voting Behavior of National Legislators," Journal of Politics, 2011, 73(2).
Norman Schofield, Social Choice and Welfare: Special Issue on the Political Economy of Bargaining and Elections (co-edited with Maria Gallego and Marc Kilgour) 2011.
Norman Schofield, Political Economy: Critical Concepts in the Social Sciences (co-edited by Dino Falaschetti and Andrew Rutten). Hardback. Routledge, London, July 2011. Four volumes: Vol 1. Social Choice and Elections (481 pp.), Vol. II, Political Institutions (454 pp.), Vol. III, Politics, Law, and Development (373 pp)., Vol. IV Governance (387 pp.)
Norman Schofield, The Political Economy of Institutions, Democracy and Voting. (co-edited with Gonzalo Caballero). Hardback. Springer, Berlin (July 2011). 425 pp e-book (ISBN 978-3-642-19519-8).
Norman Schofield, Leadership or Chaos: The Heart and Soul of Politics. (co-authored with Maria Gallego). Springer, Berlin. August 2011. 464pp. ebook: ISBN 978-3-642-19516-7.
Itai Sened, (with Jeong, Gyung-Ho, Gary Miller, and Camilla Schofield), "Cracks in the Opposition: Immigration as a Wedge Issue for the Reagan Coalition." American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 55(3), July 2011.
Youngseok Shin (with Kaboski Buera), "Finance and Development: A Talk of Two Sectors," American Economi Review, August 2011.
Steve Smith. The American Congress (Cambridge University Press, 2006, 2009, 2011).
Steve Smith (with R. Vander Wielen), "Majority Party Bias in US Congressional Conference Committees, "Congress & the Presidency," 38:3 (September-December 2011): 271-300.
Steve Smith, "The Senate Syndrome." In Burdette A. Loomis, ed., The U.S. Senate: From Deliberation to Dysfunction(Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011): 132-158.
Steve Smith, "Resovled, Senate Rule XXll Should Be Amended so that Filibusters Can be Ended by Majority Vote," In R. Ellis and M. Nelson, eds., Debutting Reform: Conflicting Perspectives on How to Fix the American Political System (CQ Press, 2011), pp. 189-196.
Regina Smyth, William Bianco, Christopher Kam and Itai Sened. 2011. "Explaining Transitional Representation: The Rise and Fall of Women of Russia." Journal of East European and Asian Studies. 2(1): 137-162.
Margit Tavits, "Power Within Parties: The Strength of the Local Party and MP Independence in Postcommunist Europe."American Journal of Political Science, 55(4): 923-996, 2011.
Murray Weidenbaum, "Who will Guard the Guardians? The Social Responsbility of NGOs," Globalization and the Good Corporation, 2011, Volume VI, Springer Publications.
Murray Weidenbaum, "Shifting Balance Between Business and Government in the United States," Culture and Civilization: Religion in the Shadows of Modernity (Vol. 4), 2011, Transaction Publishers.
Norman Schofield, "Support for Political Leaders," (with Evan Schnidman). Homo Oeconomicus (special issue in honor of Hannu Nurmi), 2010, 27(3).
Norman Schofield, "A Stochastic Model of the 2007 Russian Duma Elections," (with Alexei Zakharov). Public Choice, January 2010, 142(2): 177-194.
Norman Schofield, "Social Oriders: A Review." Social Choice and Welfare, March 2010, 34(3): 503-536.
Norman Schofield, "Application of a Theorem in Stochastic Models of Elections," (with Chris Claasen, Ugur Ozdemir and Alexei Zakharov). International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Systems, April 2010.
Itai Sened, Marshall Thompson, Robert Walker and Ronald Watson. 2010 "The Middle Class: A New Conceptual Framework and a Brief Application to the Caucusus." American Political Science Review 104(2).
James Gibson, "Taking Stock of Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa: Assessing Citizen Attitudes Through Surveys," in Addressing the Impacts of Transitional Justice: Challenges for Empirical Research, edited by Audrey Chapman, Hugo van der Merwe, and Victoria Baxter (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press),2009.
James Gibson, "Taking Stock of Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa: Assessing Citizen Attitudes Through Surveys,"Addressing the Impacts of Transitional Justice: Challenges for Empirical Research, 2009.
Gary Miller, "Closing the Deal: Negotiating Civil Rights Legislation." 2009, (with Gyung-Ho Jeong and Itai Sened),American Political Science Review, 103(4): 588-606.
Norman Schofield, "Formal Models of Elections and Political Bargaining." Czech Economic Review (with Ugur Ozdemir), October 2009, 3(3): 207-242.
Norman Schofield, "An Activist Model of Democracy." The Political Economy of Democracy (with Enriqueta Argones, Carmen Bevia, and Humberto Llavador, eds.). July 2009, Barcelona: BBVA Foundation, pp. 80-99.
Norman Schofield, "Switching Equilibria." Legislative Party Switching and the Foundation of Political Parties. W. Heller and C. Mershon, eds. Macmillan Palgrave (June 2009), pp. 55-79.
Norman Schofield, The Political Economy of Democracy and Tyranny. Oldenbourg: Munich. ISBN 978-3-486-58826-2. 350 pp. Paperback. January 2009.
Norman Schofield, The Political Economy of Democracy (Co-Edited with Enriqueta Aagones, Carmen Bevia, Humberto Llavador). BBVA Foundation. Bilbao, Spain. 350 pp. July 2009.
Marcus Berliant, "Urban Growth and Subcenter Formation: A Trolley Ride from the Staples Center to Disneyland and the Rose Bowl," with Ping Wang, Journal of Urban Economics 63 (2008): 679-693.
Matthew Gabel, "Legislative Voting Behavior, Seen and Unseen, A Theory of Roll-Call Vote Selections," (with Clifford Carrubba and Simon Hug), Legislative Studies Quaterly, 2008, 33(4):543-572.
James Gibson, "Intolerance and Political Repression in the United States: A Half-Century After McCarthyism," American Journal of Political Science 52 (#1, January), 2008.
James Gibson, "The Evolving Legitimacy of the South African Constitutional Court," in Justice and Reconciliation in Post-Apartheid South Africa, edited by Antje du Bois-Pedain and Francois du Bois, Cambridge University Press, 2008.
James Gibson, "Truth and Reconciliation Commissions," International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd Edition (New York: Macmillan), 2008.
Andrew Martin, "Bayesian Inference," in Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, edited by Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady, and David Collier (Oxford University Press), 2008.
Charles Moul, "Prices and Endogenous Market Structure in Office Supply Superstores," with Mark Manuszak, Journal of Industrial Economics, 2008.
Norman Schofield, "Democratic Paradoxes," in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, May 2008.
Norman Schofield, "Modeling Political Economy." Homo Oeconomicus, 2008, 25(3/4): 1-32.
Norman Schofield, "The Transformation of the Republican and Democratic Coalitions in the United States," (with Gary Miller). Perspectives on Politics, September 2008. 6(3): 433-450.
Norman Schofield, "Modeling Authoritarian Regimes," (with Micah Levinson). Politics, Philosophy, and Economics, August 2008, 7(3): 243-283.
James Gibson, "'Truth' and 'Reconciliation' as Social Indicators," Social Indicators Research 81 (#2, April): 257-281, 2007.
Mona Lena Krook, "Candidate Gender Quotas: A Framework for Analysis," European Journal of Political Research, 2007.
Paul Rothstein, "Transferable Tax Credits in Missouri: An Analytical Review," (with Nathan Wineinger), June 2007.
Paul Rothstein, "Discontinuous Payoffs, Shared Resources, and Games of Fiscal Competition: Existence of Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium, Journal of Public Economics Theory, Volume 9, No. 2 (2007), pp. 335-368.
Paul Rothstein, "The Taking of Prosperity? Keo v. New London and the Economics of Eminent Domain" (with Tom Garrett), The Regional Economist, January 2007.
Norman Schofield, "Democratic Quandaries and Paradoxes," in the New Pulgrave Dictionary of Economics, Social Choice and Welfare. 28 (April, 2007):461-490.
Norman Schofield, "Political Equilibrium and Smooth Elections," Social Choice and Welfare, forthcoming.
Norman Schofield, "The Mean Voter Theorem: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Convergent Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies 74(3).(July 2007): 965-980.
Norman Schofield, "A Model of Political Competition with Activists Applied to Elections in Argentina, 1985-1995." (with Guido Cataife) 53(3) ( May 2007): 213-231.
Steven Smith, The Evolution of Agenda-Setting Institutions in Congress: Path Dependency in House and Senate Institutional Development," in D. Brady and M. McCubbins, eds., Party, Process, and Political Change in Congress, Volume 2 (Stanford University Press, 2007): 165-181.
Steven Smith, "Going Nuclear, Senate Style," Perspectives on Politics, with S. Binder and A. Madonna, December 2007.
Steven Smith, Party Influence in Congress (Cambridge University Press, 2007).
Lee Epstein, "Does the U.S. Constitution Need an Era?" with Lisa Baldez and Andrew Martin, Journal of Legal Studies,January 2006.
Lee Epstein, "The Changing Dynamics of Senate Voting on Supreme Court Nominees," Journal of Politics, 2006.
James Gibson, "Enigmas of Intolerance: Fifty Years after Stouffer's Communism, Conformity, and Civil Liberties," Perspectives on Politics, March 2006.
James Gibson, "Judicial Institutions," in The Oxford Handbook of Political Institutions, edited by R. A. W. Rhodes, Sarah A. Binder, and Bert A. Rockman (New York: Oxford University Press), pp. 514-534 (Chapter 27), 2006.
James Gibson, "The Contributions of Truth to Reconciliation: Lessons from South Africa," Journal of Conflict Resolution50 (#3, June): 309-432, 2006.
James Gibson, "Can Truth Reconcile Divided Nations?" in Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding in Post-War Societies: Sustaining the Peace, edited by T. David Mason and James D. Meernik New York: Routledge), pp. 176-195, 2006.
James Gibson, Overcoming Apartheid: Can Truth Reconcile a Divided Nation? (New York: Russell Sage Foundation), paperback, 2006.
James Gibson "Overcoming Apartheid: Can Truth Reconcile a Divided Nation?" The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 603 (#1, January): 82-110, 2006.
James Gibson, "Do Strong Group Identities Fuel Intolerance? Evidence from the South African Case," Political Psychology 27 (#5): 665-705), 2006 (lead article).
James Gibson, "Enigmas of Intolerance: Fifty Years after Stouffer's Communism, Conformity, and Civil Liberties" Perspectives on Politics4 (#1, March): 21-34, 2006.
Nathan Jensen, Multinational Corporations and the Nation-State: A Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment (Princeton University Press, 2006).
William Lowry, "Unbuilt Dams: Seminal Events and Policy Change in China, Australia, and the United States," with Andrew Mertha, Comparative Politics, 2006.
Andrew Mertha, "Policy Enforcement Markets': How Bureaucratic Redundancy Contributes to Effective IPR Policy Implementation in China," Comparative Politics 38 (3), April 2006: 295-316.
Andrew Mertha, "China's Soft Centralization: Shifting Tiao/KuaiAuthority Relations Since 1998," The China Quarterly, December 2006.
Gary Miller, "Pathways to Cooperation: Negotiation and Social Exchange Between Principal and Agent," with W. Bottom, J. Holloway, A. Mislin, and A. Whitford, Administrative Science Quarterly, 2006 51:29-58.
James Morley (co-author), "Detecting Shift-Contagion in Currency and Bond Markets," Journal of International Economics, March 2006.
James Morley, "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles (Elservier Science) 2006.
Paul Rothstein, "Group Welfare and the Formation of a Common Labor Market: Some Global Results" (with Gary Hoover), International Tax and Public Finance, Volume 13, No. 1, (2006), p. 3-23.
Norman Schofield, Multiparty Democracy: Elections and Legislative Politics (with Itai Sened) (Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Norman Schofield, Architects of Political Change: Constitutional Quandaries and Social Change(Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Norman Schofield, "Equilibria in the Spatial Stochastic Model of Voting with Party Activists," The Review of Economic Design. 10 (3)(December 2006): 183-203.
Steven Smith, "Law Making and Decree Making in the Russian Federation: Time, Space, and Rules in Russian National Policy Making," Post-Soviet Affairs, with M. Haspel and T. Remington, July 2006.
Steven Smith, "Who Wins? Party Effects in Legislative Voting," Legislative Studies Quarterly 31 (February), pp. 33-69, with E. Lawrence and F. Maltzman, 2006.
Steven Smith, The American Congress (Cambridge University Press, 2006; Houghton Mifflin, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2006).
Andrew Sobel, Political Economy and World Affairs (Congressional Quarterly Press, 2005/6).
Murray Weidenbaum, "The Management Style of Ronald Reagan," Directors and Boards, Fourth Quarter 2006.
Lee Epstein (co-author), Advise and Consent: The Politics of Judicial Appointments (Oxford University Press, 2005).
Lee Epstein, "The Judicial Common Space," with Andrew Martin, Jeffrey Segal, and Chad Westerland, Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 2005.
Nathan Jenses, "Market Responses to Politics: The Rise of Lula and the Decline of the Brazilian Stock Market,"Comparative Political Studies (with S. Schmith), 2005.
William Lowry, "Policy Reversals and Changing Politics: State Governments and Dam Removals," State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 2005.
Andrew C. Mertha, The Politics of Piracy: Intellectual Property in Contemporary China(Cornell University Press, 2005).
James Morley, Effects of Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005: 291-308, with C.J. Kim and J. Piper.
James Morley (co-author), "Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005.
Steven Smith, "Parties and Leadership in the Senate," in S. Binder and P. Quirk, eds., The Legislative Branch and American Democracy: Institutions and Performance (Oxford University Press, 2005).
Steven Smith, "The Dynamics of Party Government in Congress," in L. Dodd and B. Oppenheimer, eds., Congress Reconsidered, 8th ed. (CQ Press, 2005), pp. 181-206, with G. Gamm.
Steven Smith, "Parties and Leadership in the Senate," in S. Binder and P. Quirk, eds., The Legislative Branch and American Democracy: Institutions and Performance (Oxford University Press, 2005).
David Felix, "The Past as Future? The Contribution of Financial Globalization to the Current Crises of Neo-Liberalism as a Development Stragegy," International Papers in Political Economy Vol. 11, No. 1, March 2004.
James Gibson, "Russian Anti-Semitism and the Scapegoating of Jews: The Dog that Didn't Bark," British Journal of Political Science, February 2004.
Samuel Kernell and Steven Smith (eds.), Principals and Practice of American Politics: Classic and Contemporary Readings, Second Edition (CQ Press, 2004).
Gaetano Antinolfi, "Discount Window Policy, Banking Crises, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," with Todd Keister,Macroeconomic Dynamics, June 2003.